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On a bright February morning under a blank desert sky, three experts in world population get into a van in Tempe, Arizona, and drive back to the future. Route 60 out of the city. On either side, what used to be cotton fields and cattle feedlots, and before that catclaw bushes and cactus scrub, has turned into suburban sprawl.

The Phoenix metropolitan area, a. Due largely to the latter, the Northwest Valley of Phoenix is one of the fastest-aging population centers of the country. The day starts cool, even cold. Frost disrupts the tee times on the bright green golf courses dotting the Northwest Valley. Silver-haired drivers on souped-up golf carts nose into the traffic, one maneuvering fearlessly in front of the university van.

Screened by a low white wall, rows of nearly identical single-level houses nestle on tidy, concentric streets. A big hospital overlooks the development like a lifeguard scanning a beach. Welcome to Sun City, Arizona , population 38,, the once and future retirement mecca, where the whole world seems to be headed.

The three academics get out. They were asked to discuss global population trends, including growth, fertility, and the impacts of immigration.

To make the discussion more pointed, it would take place during a field trip to Sun City, the prototypical American retirement community, now entering old age itself.

None of the three has been here before, and they are curious to see it. There was consternation in the media when the Population Division of the United Nations announced that Earth had gained its 7 billionth person in The focus should be on the rate of growth and on the eventual turnabout.

Demographers habitually take the long view, because subtle changes in population trends may take 50 years or more to register statistically. Instead, an annual population gain of 2 percent has been cut in half and continues to head down. The slowdown in growth has been offset somewhat by rising longevity. Greater longevity causes a society to age unless births surge in compensation. In fact, the U. Tall and lean, a vigorous golfer and baseball fan, he was a millionaire contractor with a common touch.

These were people who had lived through an economic depression and a world war. The advertisements for Sun City depicted a golden way of life in a place where they could retire and relax, where they would not be frail or sick. Some of those ads now hang in the Sun City Historical Museum, which occupies one of the first homes to be built here, next to the first golf course. Two vintage golf carts, labeled Him and Her, stand side by side in the carport. Inside, the modest fixtures and furniture of a typical s retired couple are on display.

The original cinder-block structure consisted of five rooms totaling just square feet; an addition was put on the back later. The small eat-in kitchen features a boxy electric range and fridge. The three academics smile as they look into the bathroom. But recently the policy was updated. Now only one owner has to be over 55, this to accommodate residents with younger spouses.

Getting back in the van and touring the quiet, curving streets, with their neat plantings and pink-tinted gravel, the ASU group sees no pregnant women or kids, no young people whatsoever. Sun City has a fertility rate of zero. The fertility rate is the number of children an average female will produce in her lifetime.

The panelists note that the rate is currently plunging in almost all countries around the world. True, it has not occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, not yet. But for those who specialize in the long view, fertility collapse and accelerated aging have supplanted overpopulation as the most salient demographic trend. This trend applies to any country on the development escalator.

Next, almost automatically, fertility goes down. In Mexico the fertility rate is under 3, approaching replacement level. The replacement rate is the number of children that the average woman must produce in order to replace herself and her mate. Demographers normally define the replacement rate as 2. It is a pivotal number, indicating that a population is stable, not expanding, and very likely to shrink. Among the countries and territories in the world, two-thirds now have fertility rates below 3, while one-third have slipped under 2 and have begun to contract.

Japan, the poster child for extreme trends in aging and fertility, is projected to lose a third of its population in the next 50 years. The most populous nation, China, has a fertility rate of 1. India, the second most populous nation, has brought down its growth to 2. The United States stands at the cusp of population decline because American females are having an average of only 2.

In those figures lies the turnabout in world population that Glick predicts, and also its senescence, because when people are taken off the population escalator—at the front end, by not being born—those already on it become more conspicuous as they near the top. There is no stopping the process. Birt describes a favorite graphic of his, derived from a United Nations publication. Two lines are crossing, the percentage of people over 65 and the percentage under 5.

Back in , children predominated in the world; in the seniors will be on top. Was there a single factor to account for this world-shaking reversal? That would be inconceivable in Japan 30 years ago. Since becoming a graduate student in Arizona, she goes home to Japan only four weeks a year. Japan has the highest median age in the world, a shade under 45 years, and is in a quiet panic about how to take care of its graying, shrinking population.

She remembers an elementary school that was built in her hometown when she was young. The new school was fitted with wheelchair ramps and movable partitions so it could be converted to a senior center when the flow of children dried up.

In her postgraduate research, Fukui is studying senior citizen facilities in Phoenix. So society tends to promote that. If the United States is deficient in Confucian respect for the aged, it has an asset that Japan lacks.

Like human hydraulic fluid, immigration pressures the demographic machinery of the world, and the world whines and wheezes in response. But the needs of its burgeoning elderly have forced the government to relent and let in caregivers from Indonesia and the Philippines. Bearing children at higher rates than their hosts and taking lower-paying jobs in hospitals and nursing homes, the new arrivals have the potential to alleviate two problems at once, those of rapid aging and a shortage of caregivers.

The Phoenix sprawl foreshadows the fractured demography to come. Although Phoenix and the state at large are 30 percent Hispanic, that proportion drops to 0. Eight of 10 Arizonans who are 65 and older are white, and their numbers are expected to double in 10 years. Already the majority of elementary schoolchildren are Hispanic. It would be hard to concoct a better recipe for social heartburn.

In her sociological research Glick has documented the stresses on Hispanic and Asian immigrants in Phoenix, which intensified during the recession of the past four years. What is happening in Arizona is a microcosm of global strains, as younger, darker countries confront aging, richer ones. Cars move in a dreamy line along Del Webb Boulevard. Getting into a space took a bit longer than it might have because the other drivers in the lot are, shall we say, erratic. All the same, nobody honks.

Sun City cuts everyone a lot of slack. Sun City is an anachronism, the three researchers agree, and the pool of potential residents is bound to shrink. They will definitely need handrails in their houses, if only because, according to surveys, they will want to stay in their homes as long as possible. The trend has reached Sun City and what is now its third generation of residents. As independent as they may strive to be, the baby boomers will not escape chronic illness and the other ravages of old age.

Birt has a version of his Solving for X graphic that shows the disease burden on the graying world population. In his twenties he nearly died of typhoid, a major infectious killer of the early 20th century.

Advised by a doctor to move to a warm, dry climate, he chose Phoenix. Webb died when he was 75 of lung cancer, a modern lifestyle disease caused mainly by smoking and largely affecting older people. Scary statistics about the coming tidal wave of debilitated seniors are almost ridiculously easy to generate.

Among Americans over 80—who represent the fastest-growing segment of the U. Again, the Phoenix area will spearhead the trend. Already more nursing homes are located in the Northwest Valley than anywhere else in the country. Behind its palm trees and golf courses, Sun City is destined to become a Potemkin village of invalids unless it opens its doors to a younger and more diverse population.

He puts his faith in technology, envisioning that in lieu of human attendants, medical devices in highly wired households will keep an eye on seniors, reminding them about their medications and monitoring their vital signs, even as they sleep. The trio is having coffee at a small table in the supermarket. Elderly shoppers glide about with their carts, wheels squeaking on the polished floor. Sun City has spawned plump successors: Sun City West, Sun City Grand, and Sun City Festival, each development pushing farther out into the desert and offering greater amenities to a more upscale class of retirees.

But many boomers have not saved enough money to retire and will probably have to keep working well past 65; others, tapping on their smartphones beside their swimming pools, may prefer to keep working anyway. Before then, nobody retired. The shared vision of retiring to white, middle-class Sun City is defunct.

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Salaries in Mesa, AZ: How do they do so? First, given traditionally dominant social structures, wherein. Second, as mate acquisition and mate reten-. When competing to acquire mates, women. Campbell, ; Hess, ; Vaillancourt, In part, this is. It is plausible that. Consistent with this reasoning, women may strategically—.

For example, Vrangalova and colleagues. The usefulness of this strategy depends on women being able to. If a woman indiscriminately distances herself and her partner from. Hrdy, ; Taylor et al. Campbell, ; Smuts, , as well as the threat of aggression.

In addition, if a woman were to consistently and indiscriminately. Thus, on one hand, the costs of indiscriminately avoiding other. How might women manage this challenge? We propose that women navigate this social problem by a.

That is, those other women perceived to be. Below, we reason that ovulating women may be. Because the reproductive consequences of many behaviors de-. Less work, however, has asked how. A growing number of studies have shown that men experience. For instance, Bobst and Lobmaier The men rated the ovulating composite as more physically attrac-.

Together, these finding suggest that men might be particularly. For example, women report greater interest in. Ovulating women are particularly favorable toward, receptive to,. Further, ovulation may cause women to increase their intrasexual. For instance, near peak fertility, women are. Ovulating women also strengthen their. Amplifying their attractiveness to. Further, ovulating women also engage in addi-. One might expect partnered women. That is, a sexual affair with a nonovulating woman.

However, because even a one-off act of sexual inter-. Thus, the costs of failing to guard against an. The work that does exist, however, provides. Like men, women report.

Buss, , women may see ovulating vs. The Benefits and Costs of Socially Distancing. Ovulation may make women both more attractive to men and more. Moreover, women face high fitness. Thus, we predict that partnered women will be especially wary of.

As a consequence, we expect that partnered women will want. As noted above, however, distancing women who are simultane-. Whether women socially exclude another woman is likely to take into. For instance, given that ovulating women are. Moreover, the effectiveness of a poacher depends on her ability to be. Studies 1a and 1b test the basic prediction that partnered. In those studies, women. Sharma, ; Vrangalova et al.

Study 2 shows that the observed effect holds even. This study also suggests that the effect depends. Finally, because composite photographs tend. This study also found that a par-. We predict that partnered women—perhaps especially those part-. We also explore potential mediators of inclinations to socially.

The existing mate guarding literature. In particular, the perceived trustwor-. We are not suggesting that women consciously evaluate all new. The desire to befriend or. We are suggesting, however, that mate retention concerns—and.

Thirty-six engaged or married women were re-. Procedure, materials, and measures. Before the focal task, participants provided demographic. The eight-item Landolt Mate-Value Scale. Items were averaged to form. Scale to assess their perceptions of how sexually desirable their. Items were averaged to form a single composite of. In the focal task, participants were randomly assigned to view one. The two target photographs were created by.

Bobst and Lobmaier ; each photograph is a composite of the. Urine and saliva samples were used to assess luteinizing hormone,.

Below either photo of Sara was the same short. In it, participants were asked to imagine themselves at a. See Appendix A for the full vignette. Participants then answered a series of questions, ostensibly. Sara and questions about their perceptions of Sara were presented. We assessed mate guarding via an established. To assess self-distancing mate guarding , whereby partici-.

I could see her as a best friend ; b willingness to consider the. For both self- and. Exclusive, committed long-term relationships often imply the reliable. Vohs, ; Buss, ; Kruger, Engagements, marriages, or both,.

By contrast, dating relationships. Women in dating relationships may thus. Thus, we focus on engaged and. We were unsure as to the proportion of female MTurk workers who. Although we titled our online MTurk survey in. Hence, we included questions of. Doing so encourages partici-.

Study 1a suffers from a small. Other relationship factors e. We explore the role of relationship insecurities in Study 1b and. We present Sara as a novel same-sex acquaintance—a woman who. A same-sex acquaintance has the potential to be at once a new.

Exploring how partnered women. Conceivably, women might also be expected to similarly. We address this possibility in the. On 7-point scales, participants indicated how trustworthy ,. To examine the specific hypothesis—that women with partners. There were significant main. Following Aiken and West , we probed the interaction at 1.

SD above and below the mean of partner mate-value. For women with lower mate-value partners, there was no such. Women who themselves have lower self-perceived mate-value. Therefore, we also ran a regression model using self-perceived. Moreover, including self-perceived mate-value. The effects of target fertility. Although the pattern for this measure matched.

We hypothesized that percep-. Thus, we first tested whether each of. Later, aggregating across the samples from Studies 1a and 1b to. In addition to significant main effects of Target. Echoing the patterns of data for social distancing, women. There was no difference. There were, however, no significant effects of Target Fertility,. Error bars represent SE s.

Partner Mate-value, or their interaction on perceived attractiveness. Although women with desirable partners wanted social. We note, however, that composite faces tend to be viewed as. We explore, more generally, the role of target attractiveness. There was also a marginally signif-. There was not, however, a significant. Friendly, outgoing, and warm. No interaction effects were.

Study 1a tested the hypothesis that women—perhaps especially. Despite the assumed inclination of both high and low. That only women partnered with men they. This sensitive calibration would seem well-. To the extent that distancing oneself can keep potential mate. That there was no statistically significant desire to engage.

We note, however, that the observed. In Study 1b, we again test the potential role of. What inferences do partnered women make about ovulating. Trustworthiness emerged as a strong candidate, with partners of men. We explore this further in Study 1b. In Study 1b, we retested our hypotheses using a larger sample. Moreover, we used an alternative operationalization of part-. For men, desirability to the opposite sex may comprise multiple.

Specifically, when seeking a po-. By contrast, ovulating women are. In Study 1b we complement the previously used partner mate-. Relatedly, we also address a second possible alternative expla-. One might argue that women partnered to. Perhaps, then, such women are espe-. Thus, women partnered with high mate-value men.

There were heterosexual engaged or mar-. Some participants failed to fill out focal items,. We replicated the procedure for. Study 1a, adding an additional, complementary measure of partner. Participants also responded to a scale assessing their attach-. We created a scale to assess how sexy a. These four ratings were com-.

To test the possibility that attach-. Participants here were instructed to think about their. The 18 Anxiety items and the 18 Avoidance. As in Study 1a, we found a. As expected, this ef-. We probed the interaction at 1 SD above and below the mean of. As predicted, women with partners they. This pattern largely replicates for the partner sexiness predictor. Regressing target fertility, partner sexiness, and the interaction. We also observed the pre-.

Whereas women with highly sexy. Whether operationalized as being of high mate-value or. As in Study 1a, we re-. Consistent with the pattern of data. As predicted, women with highly desirable partners reported. As with Study 1a, although we titled our online MTurk survey in such. This pattern also largely replicated when substituting partner. There was a significant main. Whereas women with partners they. This, too, largely repli-.

To determine whether self-reports. For models predicting self-distancing mate-guarding,. Avoidance did not reach significance for models predicting. More important, in no. To test for candidate media-.

However, women with very desirable partners did again. In Study 1a, unlike previous research. Here, however, there was a significant. The simple effects for attractiveness ratings.

Similarly, when substituting partner sexiness for partner mate-. Women with highly sexy partners. In concert with results from. Study 1a, these findings further suggest that judgments of the. There were no significant effects of target fertil-. The mate guarding and ovulation litera-. The results of Studies 1a. Our findings do suggest, however, that. Given that women who are perceived to be apt mate poachers may be. If so, this bolsters the. The patterns of findings. Also, given that partner mate-.

Following Preacher and Hayes , we estimated the SD of. Mate-value interaction was estimated to lie between.

At 1 SD above the mean high. We also tested this same moderated-mediation model for our. The indirect effect of the. In Study 1b, we replicated and extended our main findings from. Using a larger sample, we again showed that women. The pattern of findings largely repli-. Although the effect of partner mate-value and. However, in Study 1a, we found that.

Moreover, we again found that women with partners perceived. The observed role of. By distancing themselves and their partners from seemingly. Thus, women might engage a mate-guarding. Whereas Studies 1a and 1b focused on how interper-. Consider two features of the procedure from Studies 1a and 1b:.

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